Writing against common behavioral biases
A meaningful part of the philosophy behind this site comes directly from behavioral finance research on how investors actually make decisions, as opposed to how classical theory assumes they do. Loss aversion—the well-documented tendency to feel a loss more intensely than an equivalent gain—helps explain why we spend real space on drawdown math and risk, not just growth scenarios, since underweighting the emotional reality of losses in favor of upside-only illustrations sets readers up for decisions they will regret in a downturn. Recency bias—weighting recent events more heavily than base rates or longer history—is part of why we push back on treating any single year's returns, or the latest headline, as a reliable guide to what comes next. Overconfidence, both in individual investors' assessments of their own skill and in professional forecasters' certainty about their calls, is a recurring theme across nearly everything we publish, which is why scenario thinking and stated assumptions show up throughout the site rather than single, confident-sounding predictions.